Decision Moose (Tracked Signals)
The Global Index Moose's actual published switches, replayed.
Holding now
Switched Sep 11, 2026- EEM100%
- EEMEmerging Markets100.0%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 29, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
-2.4%
YTD
+16.8%
1Y
+30.2%
3Y
+27.7%
5Y
+12.1%
10Y
—
Growth of $100
Backtest from Jan 2, 2020 to Sep 29, 2026 (6.6 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+12.2%
Volatility
17.0%
Max drawdown
-20.5%
Sharpe
0.61
Sortino
0.84
Calmar
0.60
Best year
+57.4%
Worst year
-13.7%
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 63% of months positive
Published vs. replayed
Decision Moose's own calendar-year results next to this page's replay of the same switches at closing prices. Gaps come mostly from execution: the model exits at intraday stop prices, which a close-price replay can't reproduce. Checked Sep 30, 2026.
| Year | Published | Replayed | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026(YTD) | +21.2% | +16.8% | -4.4% |
| 2025 | +58.7% | +57.4% | -1.3% |
| 2024 | +5.5% | +4.8% | -0.7% |
| 2023 | +3.6% | +6.3% | +2.7% |
| 2022 | -16.3% | -13.7% | +2.6% |
| 2021 | +11.7% | +10.2% | -1.5% |
| 2020(partial) | +13.2% | +8.1% | -5.1% |
Performance by macro backdrop
Each month of the backtest is classified by four stress flags: yield curve inverted, credit spreads stressed, labor market weakening, volatility elevated. None is Calm, one is Caution, two or more is Stress. Returns are compounded over those months and annualised; the S&P 500 column covers the same months as this backtest.
| Backdrop | Months | Strategy | S&P 500 | Months up | Worst month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm | 27 | +22.5% | +13.7% | 70% | -8.1% |
| Caution | 40 | +7.0% | +15.4% | 63% | -12.0% |
| Stress | 12 | +12.7% | +21.5% | 50% | -6.6% |
Descriptive only: months are classified with data that was not all published in real time. Sources: FRED (T10Y3M, BAA10Y, SAHMREALTIME, VIXCLS).
Worst drawdowns
Peak to trough, and how long it took to get back to the old high. Month-end values, so depths read slightly shallower than the daily maximum.
| Depth | Peak → trough | Fall | Recovery | S&P 500 same window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-19.7% | Aug 2021 → May 2023 | 21 mo | 22 mo | -5.0% |
-10.1% | Jan 2020 → Oct 2020 | 10 mo | 2 mo | — |
-8.0% | Feb 2026 → Mar 2026 | 1 mo | 2 mo | -4.9% |
-7.8% | Jun 2026 → Sep 2026 | 3 mo | Still below | +2.6% |
-6.9% | Feb 2021 → Mar 2021 | 1 mo | 4 mo | +4.5% |
Strategy Lab
See what acting a day or two late on each published switch would have cost, or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
Not a model we run: this replays every switch Decision Moose has published on its public Global Index Model page since January 2020 (the log's current extent), trading at the close on each switch date. The model holds one fund at a time from a menu of US, international, bond and gold ETFs, and has used daily signals with stop-losses since 2017. Updated weekly from their page.
The rules
- 1Holdings follow Decision Moose's published switch log exactly; 100% in one fund at a time.
- 2Each switch trades at that day's close. Money-market holdings are modelled as T-bills (BIL).
- 3Compare with Moose-Style Index Rotation, an open approximation of the same idea.
Funds used
- AXJL Asia Pacific ex-Japan
- BIL T-Bills
- EDV Long Zero-Coupon Treasuries
- EEM Emerging Markets
- EFA Intl Developed (EAFE)
- EWJ Japan
- GLD Gold
- IEV Europe (IEV)
- ILF Latin America
- IWM US Small Cap
- SHY 1-3Y Treasuries
- SPY S&P 500
Early history uses proxy funds: EEM.
Signals: COPYRIGHT QuantStreet (Decision Moose), All Rights Reserved. Replayed from the public Global Index Model page for informational purposes.
Recent allocations
Percent of the portfolio in each fund, decided at each month-end and held the following month
| Fund | Aug '24 | Sep '24 | Nov '24 | Dec '24 | Jan '25 | May '25 | Jun '25 | Aug '25 | Mar '26 | Apr '26 | Jul '26 | Sep '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | 100 | 100 | · | · | 100 | · | · | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| IWM US Small Cap | · | · | 100 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 100 | · |
| EFA Intl Developed (EAFE) | · | · | · | · | · | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| EEM Emerging Markets | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 100 | · | 100 |
| SPY S&P 500 | · | · | · | 100 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| BIL T-Bills | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 100 | · | · | · |
Changes
- Sep 2026Bought EEM 100% · Sold IWM (100%)
- Jul 2026Bought IWM 100% · Sold EEM (100%)
- Apr 2026Bought EEM 100% · Cash 100% → 0%
- Mar 2026Sold GLD (100%) · Cash 0% → 100%
- Aug 2025Bought GLD 100% · Sold EFA (100%)
- May 2025Bought EFA 100% · Sold GLD (100%)
- Jan 2025Bought GLD 100% · Sold SPY (100%)
- Dec 2024Bought SPY 100% · Sold IWM (100%)
- Nov 2024Bought IWM 100% · Sold GLD (100%)
More relative momentum
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US or international stocks when stocks beat T-bills; else bonds.
Accelerating Dual Momentum
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Faster dual momentum on 1, 3 and 6-month returns.