Holding now
Signal from Dec 2025 close- VTI25%
- TLT25%
- GLD25%
- BIL25%
- VTIUS Total Market25.0%
- TLT20+Y Treasuries25.0%
- GLDGold25.0%
- BILT-Bills25.0%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
-1.5%
YTD
+2.5%
1Y
+6.7%
3Y
+15.3%
5Y
+7.4%
10Y
+7.1%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Dec 1, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026 (21.7 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+7.3%
Volatility
7.3%
Max drawdown
-17.5%
Sharpe
0.79
Sortino
1.12
Calmar
0.42
Best year
+22.2%
Worst year
-12.5%
What if you added a trend filter? → Timed Permanent Portfolio
The same weights, but each sleeve steps into T-bills when it closes a month below its 10-month average.
- CAGR
- +7.3%
- +5.6%
- Max DD
- -17.5%
- -7.6%
- Sharpe
- 0.79
- 0.71
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 62% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
Harry Browne's all-weather idea from 1981: stocks for prosperity, long bonds for deflation, gold for inflation and cash for recession. It rarely shines but rarely hurts.
The rules
- 125% each: US stocks, long-term Treasuries, gold, T-bills.
- 2Rebalance annually.
Funds used
- BIL T-Bills
- GLD Gold
- TLT 20+Y Treasuries
- VTI US Total Market
Early history uses proxy funds: SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Dec 2025
- Dec 2024
- Dec 2023
- Dec 2022
- Dec 2021
- Dec 2020
- Dec 2019
- Dec 2018
- Dec 2017
- Dec 2016
- Dec 2015
- Dec 2014