GTAA 5 / Timed Ivy
Static Ivy, with each sleeve switched off below its 10-month SMA.
Holding now
Signal from Aug 2026 close- VTI20%
- VEA20%
- VNQ20%
- DBC20%
- BIL20%
- VTIUS Total Market20.0%
- VEAIntl Developed20.0%
- VNQUS REITs20.0%
- DBCCommodities20.0%
- BILT-Bills20.0%
Signal preview: if the month ended today
- BIL40%
- VTI20%
- VEA20%
- DBC20%
Unofficial. The rules only trade on month-end closes.
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
-0.2%
YTD
+12.5%
1Y
+14.7%
3Y
+9.7%
5Y
+5.8%
10Y
+6.4%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Dec 1, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026 (19.7 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+5.0%
Volatility
8.1%
Max drawdown
-15.9%
Sharpe
0.46
Sortino
0.63
Calmar
0.31
Best year
+21.5%
Worst year
-6.0%
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 66% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
The model from Faber's 2007 paper 'A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation'. Each of the five Ivy sleeves stays invested while it closes the month above its 10-month simple moving average; otherwise that 20% sits in T-bills.
The rules
- 1Static Ivy sleeves at 20% each.
- 2At each month-end, any sleeve below its 10-month SMA moves to T-bills.
Funds used
- DBC Commodities
- IEF 7-10Y Treasuries
- VEA Intl Developed
- VNQ US REITs
- VTI US Total Market
Early history uses proxy funds: EFA, SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Aug 2026
- Jul 2026
- Jun 2026
- May 2026
- Apr 2026
- Mar 2026
- Feb 2026
- Jan 2026
- Dec 2025
- Nov 2025
- Oct 2025
- Sep 2025