Leveraged S&P 500 Buy & Hold (3x)
What daily-reset 3x leverage does with no risk control.
Educational only. A 3x fund needs only a 34% index drop to be wiped out in a single day, and losses of more than 95% have happened in backtests.
Holding now
Signal from Aug 2026 close- SPY-3X100%
- SPY-3XS&P 500 3x (synthetic)100.0%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
+1.6%
YTD
+34.5%
1Y
+40.6%
3Y
+58.6%
5Y
+25.1%
10Y
+31.8%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Feb 1, 1995 to Sep 25, 2026 (31.5 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+19.1%
Volatility
57.1%
Max drawdown
-97.6%
Sharpe
0.57
Sortino
0.81
Calmar
0.20
Best year
+121.5%
Worst year
-85.7%
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 62% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
A synthetic 3x daily-reset S&P 500 held through everything. Compare its drawdowns with the timed version and with plain SPY to see volatility decay at work.
The rules
- 1100% synthetic 3x daily-reset S&P 500, never sold.
Funds used
- SPY-3X S&P 500 3x (synthetic)
Early history uses proxy funds: SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Aug 2026
- Jul 2026
- Jun 2026
- May 2026
- Apr 2026
- Mar 2026
- Feb 2026
- Jan 2026
- Dec 2025
- Nov 2025
- Oct 2025
- Sep 2025