Timed Permanent Portfolio
Browne's four seasons, with trend filters on the risky three.
Holding now
Signal from Aug 2026 close- BIL75%
- VTI25%
- BILT-Bills75.0%
- VTIUS Total Market25.0%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
+0.3%
YTD
+1.1%
1Y
+4.5%
3Y
+11.0%
5Y
+6.1%
10Y
+5.4%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Sep 1, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026 (21.0 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+5.6%
Volatility
5.8%
Max drawdown
-7.6%
Sharpe
0.71
Sortino
0.99
Calmar
0.74
Best year
+18.1%
Worst year
-5.0%
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 63% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
The Permanent Portfolio with the 10-month SMA rule applied to the stock, long Treasury and gold sleeves. The T-bill sleeve is left unchanged.
The rules
- 125% each: US stocks, long Treasuries, gold, T-bills.
- 2Stocks, long Treasuries and gold each move to T-bills when below their 10-month SMA.
Funds used
- BIL T-Bills
- GLD Gold
- TLT 20+Y Treasuries
- VTI US Total Market
Early history uses proxy funds: SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Aug 2026
- Jul 2026
- Jun 2026
- May 2026
- Apr 2026
- Mar 2026
- Feb 2026
- Jan 2026
- Dec 2025
- Nov 2025
- Oct 2025
- Sep 2025