All-Weather-style
Risk-balanced across growth and inflation regimes.
Holding now
Signal from Dec 2025 close- TLT40%
- VTI30%
- IEF15%
- GLD7.5%
- DBC7.5%
- TLT20+Y Treasuries40.0%
- VTIUS Total Market30.0%
- IEF7-10Y Treasuries15.0%
- GLDGold7.5%
- DBCCommodities7.5%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
-1.4%
YTD
+4.5%
1Y
+6.4%
3Y
+11.4%
5Y
+3.2%
10Y
+5.5%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Mar 1, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026 (20.5 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+6.7%
Volatility
8.1%
Max drawdown
-23.7%
Sharpe
0.65
Sortino
0.92
Calmar
0.28
Best year
+18.3%
Worst year
-19.2%
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 65% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
The retail approximation of Bridgewater's risk-parity idea popularised in Tony Robbins' Money: Master the Game. Bond-heavy so each asset contributes similar risk, with gold and commodities as inflation hedges.
The rules
- 130% stocks, 40% long Treasuries, 15% intermediate Treasuries, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities.
- 2Rebalance annually.
Funds used
- DBC Commodities
- GLD Gold
- IEF 7-10Y Treasuries
- TLT 20+Y Treasuries
- VTI US Total Market
Early history uses proxy funds: SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Dec 2025
- Dec 2024
- Dec 2023
- Dec 2022
- Dec 2021
- Dec 2020
- Dec 2019
- Dec 2018
- Dec 2017
- Dec 2016
- Dec 2015
- Dec 2014