Holding now
Signal from Dec 2025 close- VTI60%
- BND40%
- VTIUS Total Market60.0%
- BNDUS Aggregate Bonds40.0%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
-0.4%
YTD
+7.5%
1Y
+9.5%
3Y
+15.4%
5Y
+7.7%
10Y
+9.5%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Aug 1, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026 (24.0 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+8.6%
Volatility
11.0%
Max drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe
0.65
Sortino
0.92
Calmar
0.25
Best year
+21.9%
Worst year
-19.6%
What if you added a trend filter? → Timed 60/40
The same weights, but each sleeve steps into T-bills when it closes a month below its 10-month average.
- CAGR
- +8.6%
- +6.9%
- Max DD
- -34.2%
- -14.5%
- Sharpe
- 0.65
- 0.72
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 68% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
60% US total stock market, 40% US aggregate bonds, rebalanced every January. Not a strategy anyone gets famous for, which is exactly why it is the benchmark.
The rules
- 160% US total market, 40% aggregate bonds.
- 2Rebalance annually.
Funds used
- BND US Aggregate Bonds
- VTI US Total Market
Early history uses proxy funds: AGG, IEF, SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Dec 2025
- Dec 2024
- Dec 2023
- Dec 2022
- Dec 2021
- Dec 2020
- Dec 2019
- Dec 2018
- Dec 2017
- Dec 2016
- Dec 2015
- Dec 2014