Golden Butterfly
The Permanent Portfolio with a small-value growth tilt.
Holding now
Signal from Dec 2025 close- VTI20%
- VBR20%
- TLT20%
- SHY20%
- GLD20%
- VTIUS Total Market20.0%
- VBRUS Small Value20.0%
- TLT20+Y Treasuries20.0%
- SHY1-3Y Treasuries20.0%
- GLDGold20.0%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
-2.1%
YTD
+4.0%
1Y
+7.9%
3Y
+15.4%
5Y
+7.4%
10Y
+7.6%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Dec 1, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026 (21.7 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+7.9%
Volatility
8.7%
Max drawdown
-20.0%
Sharpe
0.75
Sortino
1.05
Calmar
0.40
Best year
+19.7%
Worst year
-12.8%
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 65% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
A Permanent Portfolio variant popularised by Portfolio Charts: small-cap value replaces part of the cash to lift returns while keeping the gold-and-bonds ballast.
The rules
- 120% each: US total market, US small-cap value, long Treasuries, short Treasuries, gold.
- 2Rebalance annually.
Funds used
- GLD Gold
- SHY 1-3Y Treasuries
- TLT 20+Y Treasuries
- VBR US Small Value
- VTI US Total Market
Early history uses proxy funds: SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Dec 2025
- Dec 2024
- Dec 2023
- Dec 2022
- Dec 2021
- Dec 2020
- Dec 2019
- Dec 2018
- Dec 2017
- Dec 2016
- Dec 2015
- Dec 2014