No Brainer
Four equal quarters, from The Intelligent Asset Allocator.
Holding now
Signal from Dec 2025 close- SPY25%
- IWM25%
- EFA25%
- BND25%
- SPYS&P 50025.0%
- IWMUS Small Cap25.0%
- EFAIntl Developed (EAFE)25.0%
- BNDUS Aggregate Bonds25.0%
Trailing returns
Through Sep 25, 2026 · 3Y+ annualised1M
-1.7%
YTD
+9.7%
1Y
+12.7%
3Y
+16.3%
5Y
+7.6%
10Y
+9.1%
Growth of $100
Backtest from Aug 1, 2002 to Sep 25, 2026 (24.0 years)
Growth of $100, rebased to the start of the selected range. Month-end prices, dividends reinvested, no taxes or trading costs.
Risk & return, full backtest
CAGR
+8.5%
Volatility
14.5%
Max drawdown
-44.9%
Sharpe
0.52
Sortino
0.73
Calmar
0.19
Best year
+29.4%
Worst year
-26.3%
Drawdowns
Percent below the prior peak, vs the S&P 500
Calendar-year returns
Faded bars are partial years · 66% of months positive
Strategy Lab
Stress-test the implementation: trade on the signal day's close or later, split the portfolio into tranches that rebalance on different days (reduces timing luck), or swap a fund for a same-asset-class alternative.
The idea
Bernstein's starter portfolio: equal parts large US stocks, small US stocks, foreign developed stocks and bonds.
The rules
- 125% S&P 500, 25% US small cap, 25% EAFE, 25% aggregate bonds.
- 2Rebalance annually.
Funds used
- BND US Aggregate Bonds
- EFA Intl Developed (EAFE)
- IWM US Small Cap
- SPY S&P 500
Early history uses proxy funds: AGG, IEF, SHY.
Recent allocations
Decided at each month-end, held the following month
- Dec 2025
- Dec 2024
- Dec 2023
- Dec 2022
- Dec 2021
- Dec 2020
- Dec 2019
- Dec 2018
- Dec 2017
- Dec 2016
- Dec 2015
- Dec 2014